Theory of games: Why Russia sent a Severomorsk strike destroyer to the Black Sea?
An ordinary Ukrainian reader is already accustomed to a powerful grouping of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation in the annexed Crimea with the "Calibra". As well as the information on the Russians' increase in the Sea of Azov, where they can use about 120 ships and boats, including rocket ships that came from the Caspian Sea. We are well aware that after Turkey, Russia is the most powerful player in the Black Sea. We know that landing ships of other Russian fleets, except for the Black Sea, are regularly used for transportation from Crimea and Novorossiysk to Syria. But the news about the Black Sea action in the Black Sea through the Bosphorus of the missile anti-submarine destroyer of the Northern Fleet "Severomorsk" is special because for the first time since the annexation of the Crimea to the water area a ship entered, which belongs to the main strike force of the Russian Navy in a far offshore zone that does not belong to the Black Sea Fleet of Russia .
At first glance, Russians have a good reason to go to the Black Sea. The missile anti-submarine destroyer of the 1155 Severomorsk project (only 8 in Russia, only one of the two laid down under the 1155.1 project ), the armed ZNK "Dagger" was launched into water in 1988, and is sufficiently an old ship, which is a 5- July 2018 is in a distant marathon. From the main base of the Northern Fleet - the North Sea ship came out in the summer and during this time visited the waters of the Indian Ocean, the Gulf of Aden, the Red and Arabian Seas. Russians reported on the implementation of tasks to combat piracy and security of civil shipping. In mid-October, Severomorsk hosted a business trip to Pemba in Mozambique, and a new year was met by Russians in the Mediterranean Sea,
It is logical that for such a long period the Russian "trough" might need repairs and now it obviously follows the port of Novorossiysk, and maybe in Sevastopol. But, surprisingly, Russian activity coincided with the escalation between Russia and Ukraine in the Sea of Azov, and the signals of NATO support to us that are expressed in the west of the British and American ships in the water area.
On December 17, the British reconnaissance ship HMS Echo (H87) entered the Black Sea, whose visit was scheduled for later dates. He made a voyage on the Odesa-Constanta-Batumi route and left for Istanbul. And on January 6, the US Navy landing ship Fort McHenry from the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Group 6 of the US Navy landed across the Bosphorus in the Black Sea. According to unofficial data, he follows the port of Odessa, and according to rumors, he can even carry Kurt Volcker's promised weapon for Ukraine, which was talked about after the November aggression of the Kremlin against Ukrainian ships and the capture of 24 sailors.
In Moscow, immediately stated that they took the Americans under the "cap" and monitor the ship using the ship Black Sea Fleet. In addition, Russian military analysts, caliber Igor Korotchenko, editor-in-chief of the National Defense magazine and a member of the Public Council under the Ministry of Defense of Russia, from TV broadcasters claim that NATO seamen entering the Black Sea are embarking on the sight of the Bastion Coastal Missile Complexes and "Mark".
What is Severomorsk here? The situation with the confrontation between Russia and the West has long been worth considering through the prism of the theory of games and evolutionary psychology. Putin and the West speak the signal language. And "a signal trying to give one or another side, the more realistic and the more powerful, the more resources this party has spent on it." As in the animal world, the very male tentacles, in order to convince the female that he is the best, is constructing a so-called "tower" or "arbor", adorned with a nearby playground. This is a fairly heavy construction and thus the male shows that he has the resources.
The British and Americans sent their own ships to the Black Sea, arriving in Odessa. Signal of Ukraine's support? No doubt In Russia, there is a lack of resources, but within them they say, in a particular case, to the Americans that "we are able to arrange problems for you, but we can and do not do it if ...". That is, you sent a landing ship to the Black Sea, and we drove an anti-submarine destroyer with missiles. Look - this is our zone and we are stronger here - in theory, we can even drown you. In addition, we can afford such a powerful weapon. And it does not matter that the destroyer is old. It is clear that there can be no question of a full-fledged conflict. But the doctrine of the Russian Federation in everything implies an answer to the signals of force from the standpoint of opponents demonstration of even greater power. Even if this power is expressed in a 30 year old trough. The media effect is - it's already a success.
From the practical point of view, the signal is rather weak, for Americans so precisely. Moreover, both in the Kremlin and in the world understand the limited possibilities of Americans in the Black Sea area through the Montreux Convention of 1936, which sets the number, tonnage and time (21 days in a row) of warships of non-Black Sea basin countries. Probably temporary. Americans did not hide their interest in reviewing the convention. But this requires negotiations with Turkey, because it controls the Bosphorus. But the limited capacity there compensates opportunities elsewhere.
Similar signals to the US were made by Putin at the end of last year when, after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine near the Kerch Strait, an American destroyer traveled to the Sea of Japan near Vladivostok, where the Russian fleet actually can not oppose anything.
Even earlier, in 2017, Vladimir Putin personally threatened to sink NATO's warships , including the Americans who went to the Black Sea to study, if they did not leave within three days.
In fact, we returned in times of the Cold War when the tension hangs in the air, but does not reach practical actions and direct clashes between the superpowers. They are replaced by a policy of signals and pain points, which diplomats and military operate on a geopolitical chessboard.
Speaking about the fleet - Russia has always loved to play with ships. Only the fleets have been killed in Russia, because there is no resource for ensuring their power in the Kremlin - both financial and technological, even in the conditions of sanctions.
For Ukraine, this situation is even useful in something, although it is dangerous. The transfer of tensions to the Black Sea could lead to a partial blockade of Russians and the port of Odessa. If the game of Russians with the Americans reaches more powerful signals to each other. On the other hand, Ukraine is interested in "breaking through" the blockade of the Kerch Strait and its own ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk. Kiev is preparing another passage of warships, roughly in January. And they have to accompany NATO ships, including Britons and Americans. Of course, to the strait. But without an escalation of tension, such support for the West would not have been possible. What happens next? Will pass or will not pass, the question is complicated. But the hope that the next aggression of Russians against Ukrainians in the eyes of NATO will lead to powerful sanctions - there is. In any case, Ukraine can win here and now ...
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